Is the Triangle ready for rail?
Commuters have few reasons to ride in sprawling, parking-rich region

Staff Photos by Takaaki Iwabu

Though buses and trains are available nearby, these commuters in Woodbridge, Va., prefer to stand in line for an informal car pool. The idea is to get enough commuters in a car to hop in the faster-moving high-occupancy-vehicle lanes on I-95 into the Washington metro area.


Unlike most of the nation's local rail systems, the $759 million regional line proposed for the Triangle isn't designed to get people in and out of one busy downtown.
Instead, it would stretch for 28 miles, through two downtowns and a spread-out research park. Its path reflects the nature of the Triangle -- a sprawling collection of relatively small cities. Together, they form what would be the least dense region in the country to build a major local rail project.
A review of national transit data shows that of the nation's more than 50 local rail systems, a majority are in regions with at least twice the density of Raleigh-Durham. Another dozen are in areas with density at least 50 percent greater than here.
The unusual nature of the plan to connect Raleigh and Durham with commuter rail has brought fresh scrutiny from federal transit officials, who are focused on hard questions: How much will it cost? How many will ride? How much time will be saved?
There's a reason for the questions. Drivers in fast-growing areas much larger than the Triangle, with more congestion and more density, have not left cars for trains in significant numbers, records show.
The Triangle Transit Authority, which is overseeing the rail effort, predicts that roughly 14,000 people will board its trains daily when they start running.
Comparable systems in Dallas-Fort Worth, South Florida and elsewhere draw from larger pools of commuters but are not seeing as many riders as are forecast for the Triangle.
The line from Fort Worth to Dallas gets 7,300 riders a day. In Florida, commuters in West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami board their commuter trains 9,700 times daily. In northern Virginia, about 15,000 take the commuter rail each day. (NOTE: The Central Florida commuter boondoggle forcasts only 4,500 riders in TWENTY YEARS!)
In each area, the population dwarfs the Triangle's. But TTA chief John D. Claflin says that TTA's service will be more frequent than other commuter rails at times other than rush hours, which will help it attract more riders.
More than that, he said, the future holds promise for rail. He believes this region will embrace the chance to avoid highway congestion if it's available.
"We have to offer alternatives," Claflin said in an interview. "And we have to be prepared for the inevitable $80 a barrel for [oil], when only the rich can afford to drive, when your gas is $6 or $7 a gallon and you can't afford to commute."
A spread-out population isn't the only challenge to the success of rail in the Triangle. Others:
* Cheap, plentiful parking across the region. Many stops on the rail are near places with spacious parking lots, making it easy for commuters to
drive instead of ride. The 60 major business locations in Research Triangle Park, for example, are surrounded by free parking lots.
* Small park-and-ride lots at the proposed TTA stations. Under current plans, the largest TTA parking lot would accommodate 444 vehicles. TTA would build a total of 2,000 park-and-ride spaces. Some cities have single lots that big.
* Few stations, long rides. At 28 miles, the Raleigh-to-Cary-to-Durham rail line is planned as one of the longest start-up commuter rail projects in the country. (NOTE: The Central Florida commuter rail boondoggle would cover 61 miles!)Covering all that ground while keeping within budget constraints means stations are fewer and farther between.
* Skipping numerous high-traffic locations. The system won't run to Chapel Hill, Duke University Medical Center, South Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, North Raleigh or fast-growing eastern Wake County, at least not at first. TTA hopes riders from those areas will drive to rail stations, or get on a bus and link to the rail.
* Expanding the rail line to serve more riders would require new taxes. (NOTE: That's a shocker!  New taxes required - say it ain't so!)
Claflin acknowledges the challenges. He calls the $759 million startup plan a "very meager beginning."
But Claflin and other advocates say the rail system is necessary to provide drivers an option as the region grows and traffic worsens. It's important to start now on a project that will be vital in coming decades, they say.
"It's one alternative," Claflin said. "But if you don't do anything and you just let it go the way it is, then you are going to have a lot of highways out there that people either won't be able to drive or will be so clogged up that you won't go anywhere. And if you wait too long, it's too late." (NOTE: More "new urbanist" bovine excrement - this is right out of the "smart growth" playbook, Boss Dick Crotty says this all the time - he needs some new material!)
Plenty of parking
One of the biggest questions about the rail project is parking, both at the stations where people would board and at the major destinations that people now reach in private vehicles.
Experts say that cheap and easy parking at places people want to go is a big barrier to ridership. And, they say, park-and-ride spaces are a must at the stations to help draw riders.
In both instances, officials acknowledge, the TTA line faces difficulty
The major one is at the rail line's central destination: Research Triangle Park. In RTP, employees at many companies take their cars to work and park free. That feature of its suburban development has made it attractive to companies.
At IBM, the park's largest employer, there are massive parking lots. IBM spokesman John Lucy said the company is a big supporter of the rail; it donated land for a stop near its main campus. And the rail will help ease a commute that gets quite clogged at times, he said. He added that staggered shifts and telecommuting are already easing congestion at peak times.
"Maybe it's not for everybody," he said. "But for some, it will be an option." (NOTE: More new urbanist dogma - again same "talking points" Boss Crotty and Linda Stewart are parrotting)
The relative ease of parking is similar elsewhere -- from downtown Raleigh, where many workers receive free or deeply discounted parking, to downtown Durham's taxpayer-subsidized parking decks at the reborn American Tobacco campus.
Mike Hill, a vice president of American Tobacco developer Capitol Broadcasting Co., said the rail wasn't considered as part of the plans to turn the old cigarette factory into offices with some shops and condos. Hill said it's "improbable" that any significant number of workers at the campus will choose rail over their cars. (NOTE: Here's another real "shocker"!)
Donald Shoupe, a professor at UCLA and national expert on parking and mass transit, said there's a clear relationship between parking and use of public transportation. His studies have shown that as parking prices in downtowns and other major locations increase, (NOTE: The Dyer Dream for downtown Orlando already in motion) so does the use of mass transit.
"I'd say it's going to be a real flop if you build a rail system in an area where everyone can park for free or very little at their destination," he said in an interview. "Why would anyone take the trouble and effort to ride if they can park easy where they're going?"
The challenge of cheap parking at destinations is compounded by a lack of park-and-ride lots at the stations for those who would choose to ride.
Claflin acknowledged that the park-and-ride lots are planned to be much smaller than what he thinks is needed. Instead of 2,000 spaces around the stations, he said, about 6,000 are probably necessary. There's not enough money to build more, he said.
He and others believe that many riders will reach the rail on redesigned and beefed-up bus routes. After riding the train, many of those riders would have to board another bus to reach their destination.
Some potential riders expressed doubts.
"I don't think anyone is going to want to drive, ride a train, get on a shuttle, and then get to work," said Joshua J. Higgin, 30, a scientist at the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences in RTP. "The people here, we make fun of it. The park is too spread out with big campuses for the rail."
Indeed, fast-growing, spread-out areas such as the Triangle face difficulty in luring riders, said Kathryn Waters, vice chairwoman of the American Public Transportation Association's commuter and inter-city rail committee.
Waters is a past director of the commuter rail that feeds Washington from the Maryland suburbs and Baltimore. And she's now in charge of the rail line running between Dallas and Fort Worth.
"The hardest thing," she said, "is to get people out of their cars." (NOTE: That's a mouthful from a high priestess of New Urbanism!)
Questions of ridership
A review of ridership data for more than 50 rail projects across the country indicates that TTA's start-up projections of 14,000 -- and a prediction of 22,000 riders a day in 2025 (NOTE: Compare that to the Central Florida commuter rail boondoggle projection of 4,500 riders in 2025!) -- would make use of rail here relatively robust.
Such comparisons among cities and systems are not easy to make. Every one is different, in length, service, stops and location. While several systems in larger areas have fewer riders than the TTA expects for the Triangle, there are plenty of cities with much higher ridership. (NOTE: Not here!)
St. Louis, for example, has a light rail line that is attracting about 40,000 riders per day. The light rail in Portland, Ore., is carrying 95,000 riders a day. Denver's rail has daily ridership of about 33,000.
But those and others with greater ridership have more density, larger downtowns, and more stations(NOTE: Not here!). St. Louis and Denver also have major sports venues that help drive ridership throughout the year.
In the other cities, the large downtown is the main magnet for daily riders. (NOTE: Not here) St. Louis, for example, has 90,000 downtown workers; Portland has 83,000.
The top spot on the TTA line is RTP, with about 38,000 workers. Downtown Raleigh has about 27,000 workers; downtown Durham has 13,700, while Duke counts about 23,000 workers at its campuses.
While there are questions about success, the rail's backers say the Triangle will morph into a more dense, congested region. (NOTE: The not-so-hidden agenda of Crotty; Stewart and Segal comes out - uncontrolled growth drives the Central Florida commuter rail boondoggle!)
David D. King, deputy state transportation secretary, calls the TTA project critically important for the region, but more so two decades from now than it will be in the next few years.
He predicts rail will spawn mixed urban neighborhoods around the stations as alternatives to the sprawling suburbs.
"Not that we won't continue to sprawl -- I think we will -- but we will be providing an option here that allows a different mode of development," King said.
Missing the hot spots
At the start, the TTA system would be smaller than its backers wanted.
A money crunch caused TTA to scrap a station at Duke University Medical Center, which was predicted to be a top station on the line. Now, those riders would stop at Ninth Street and board shuttles to campus locations and the hospital.
The rail plan also no longer goes north from downtown Raleigh to Spring Forest Road, so it won't track along the busy Capital Boulevard corridor.
A decision reached more than a decade ago to use existing tracks running through the heart of the region also means the rail won't go to some of the fastest-growing areas of Wake and Durham counties.
Claflin said the rail line will eventually need to reach more areas.
"Really, the only way to make it useful for the majority of the people here is for it to continue to grow," he said. "You add another line so you have growth to the east, maybe, or to the south to Johnston County. Or into Chapel Hill. Wherever there's growth, you have to continue to add to it."
But there is no money for such an effort yet, and local officials have not yet sought a tax increase. The current battle is only to secure the federal funding to get the rail going.
Durham Mayor Bill Bell, a TTA trustee who is one of the agency's founders, said success shouldn't be viewed in terms of how many riders the system attracts compared with how much money it costs to build. (NOTE: It's all about MONEY!)
"Right now, success will be to get it up and running -- that would be success," he said. "And then you look at the projections out over time. If we are meeting those, we are successful."
A more modest startup
Leaders in Nashville, Tenn., found themselves in a similar situation -- not enough money to fulfill the vision of the plan. Instead of seeking hundreds of millions to start a rail project, though, they decided to try and start a line on the cheap.
It's set to open early next year. Total cost: $40 million.
The line will serve commuters between an outlying suburb, Lebanon, and downtown Nashville, where about 50,000 people work each day. The rail will have six stations on about 32 miles of track.
Officials there bought 11 old train cars from Chicago for a total of $11. They cut deals to use an existing rail line instead of building new tracks. And they are building spartan stations next to gravel parking lots.
They hope to get about 1,500 riders per day.
"We want it to be a proving ground, to show people first that it can work and can be a success," said Hanne Flippen, a spokeswoman for the Regional Transportation Authority in Nashville. "We're hoping then to get support and take it out across the community."
Critics say the questions about the TTA line are enough to force a look at other possibilities.
Mike Luger, a UNC-Chapel Hill professor and past chairman of the Durham Area Transit Authority, has advocated for bus-only lanes, high-occupancy-vehicle lanes and other proposals.
"There was a feeling back when the rail was decided that we were this up-and-coming area and we needed to be like these other cities with rail," Luger said. "That just became the focus, and it was hard to get attention for other ideas." (NOTE: I'll say no more!)
© Copyright 2005, The News & Observer Publishing Company

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